A report released by the World Gold Council on October 30th shows that global gold demand (including over-the-counter transactions) will reach 1,313 tons in the third quarter of 2025, amounting to USD 146 billion. This marks a record high for single-quarter demand, with both supply and demand increasing simultaneously.

The core driver of this demand growth is the surge in investment demand, which soared to 537 tons in the third quarter, a year-on-year increase of 47%, accounting for 55% of net demand. Geopolitical instability, a weakening dollar, and the fear of missing out collectively fueled the investment boom. Investors increased their holdings of physical gold ETFs for three consecutive quarters, adding another 222 tons worth USD 26 billion. In the first three quarters of 2025, global gold ETF holdings increased by a cumulative 619 tons (approximately USD 64 billion), led by North America with 346 tons, followed by Europe (148 tons) and Asia (118 tons). Demand for gold bars and coins was also robust, increasing by 17% year-on-year to 316 tons, with India (92 tons) and China (74 tons) making significant contributions.

In contrast, global gold jewelry demand weakened under the weight of record-high prices, declining by 19% year-on-year in the third quarter. Although the two major consumer markets of China and India saw quarter-on-quarter growth due to seasonal factors, year-on-year performance remained subdued. Notably, central bank gold purchases were not deterred by high prices, with net purchases reaching 220 tons in the third quarter, a 28% increase from the second quarter and a 10% increase year-on-year. The cumulative purchases for the first three quarters reached 634 tons, below the record highs of the past three years, but still well above pre-2022 averages.

Supply also increased, with total global gold supply reaching 1,313 tons in the third quarter, up 3% year-on-year. Gold mine production reached 977 tons, a 2% year-on-year increase; recycled gold reached 344 tons, a rise of 6% year-on-year, remaining stable despite soaring gold prices.

Analysts at the World Gold Council pointed out that gold prices climbed towards USD 4,000/ounce in the third quarter, driven by strong factors such as geopolitical tensions and high inflation. Looking ahead, a weaker dollar, expectations of interest rate cuts, and lingering stagflation concerns will continue to support investment demand, suggesting further upside potential for gold prices and an optimistic market outlook.